The 2023 Preakness suffered its own last-minute race-altering scratch on Friday — eerily like the previous Kentucky Derby when it lost Forte on race day — in the form of a left back foot by second-favorite First Mission that gave him, and trainer Brad Cox, plenty of trouble to initiate withdrawal. And, like Forte’s retirement, it will completely change the complexion of the race, throwing the challenge to unseat Mage squarely on the shoulders of the Baffert-trained National Treasure, the Chad Brown-trained Blazing Sevens, the Shug McGaughey-trained Perform and the Steve Asmussen-trained Red Route One.

With First Mission out of the race, it opens the race for the middle of the pack. Given their styles and recent works, of the four, in no particular order, National Treasure, Perform, and Blazing Sevens seem to have more of the tools needed to defeat Mage than Red Route One. Following the morning line, National Treasure seems to have the best chance for Mage.

The now fairly short field of runners heightens the focus on each of the more favored horses and allows players to dig deeper into the details on them. We’ll be able to watch the money migrate and build its inevitable choppy sea as it moves back and forth from First Mission to National Treasure and Blazing Sevens and then back to Mage and Performa. Bottom line: Bad weather is coming, make sure your wallet is tied to the mast.

Before we get into some of the trickier betting tactics, this Preakness will require, hereby, a refresher on odds and positions after.

(Postal position, horse, coach, morning line)

1. National Treasure, Bob Baffert, 4-1

2. Chase the Chaos, Ed Moger Jr., 50-1

3. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, 8-5

4. Coffeewithchris, John Salzman Jr., 20-1

5. Red Route One, Steve Asmussen, 10-1

6. Execution, Shug McGaughey, 15-1

7. Blazing Sevens, Chad Brown, 6-1

8. First Mission, Brad Cox, 5-2 (SCRATCH)

(Source: Pimlico, 15/05/2023)

The now fairly short field of runners heightens the focus on each of the more favored horses and allows players to dig deeper into the details on them. We’ll be able to watch the money migrate and build its inevitable choppy sea as it moves back and forth from First Mission to National Treasure and Blazing Sevens and then back to Mage and Performa. Bottom line: Bad weather is coming, make sure your wallet is tied to the mast.

To help us weather the storm, we’re calling as usual on the Bluegrass Wise Man, a lifelong Kentucky horseman who has been so generous with his deep knowledge of the stable in past Triple Crown seasons.

Do you see anything Mage and his team need to do differently now that Mission One is scratched?

Bluegrass Wise Man: Not so much. I still have to take a break, I still have to run, and I still have to win. To do that, he needs to start the race to give himself a bit more room than he had in the Derby. In the Derby, those last few hundred meters of his were good, not trying to take away from him. But that was a bit of a turning point. He has some tactical skills, so he has legs. That’s why he’s the favorite.

Let’s address the elephant in the room, the Baffert effect.

Bluegrass Wise Man: There are a number of reasons, other than the dumb luck of attracting or getting good horses, that Bob is one of only two trainers in history to win this race seven times. If he wins it this afternoon, he will be the only trainer in history with eight Preaknesses. The main reason? Bob is a master at finding out what horses like and what they can do with what they like. He’s had it since he was a boy on his dad’s ranch, and he deepened it when he started racing horses. It’s about being able to see an athlete’s toolkit and being able to match it to the race that matches that toolkit. So here’s the point: Every horse that Bob Baffert brings to the Preakness is filtered through that deeper vision and will be guided by that hand. You can’t put a value on it, but we can say it’s better to bet with it than against it.